U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls to 89.4 in August, Missing Forecast

The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.4 in August, below the 90.3 market forecast, according to data released by The Conference Board on Tuesday. The July reading was revised lower to 90.2 from the previously reported 90.8.

The latest report presents a mixed picture of the U.S. economy. Consumers became more positive about current business and labor-market conditions, but their expectations for the coming six months deteriorated significantly.

The report was released on August 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET (14:00 GMT). The Conference Board said the survey period for the preliminary August results ran from August 3 to August 16. (The Conference Board)

U.S. Consumer Confidence Misses Expectations

The headline Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.8 points to 89.4 in August, compared with the revised July reading of 90.2. The result was below the 90.3 market forecast, representing a downside surprise for financial markets.

The decline in headline confidence came despite a notable improvement in consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions.

The Present Situation Index increased 6.8 points to 121.2, following three consecutive monthly declines. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index fell 5.8 points to 68.2, indicating greater pessimism about economic conditions over the next six months. (The Conference Board)

The divergence between the two components is important for financial markets. Consumers appear more comfortable with current business and labor-market conditions, while becoming less confident about the economic outlook.

Labor Market Perceptions Improve

The August report showed a notable improvement in consumers’ assessment of the current labor market.

The share of consumers describing jobs as “plentiful” increased to 27.0% from 24.4%, while those saying jobs were “hard to get” declined to 19.5% from 21.7%. As a result, the labor-market differential increased by 4.8 percentage points to +7.5%. (The Conference Board)

However, consumers were considerably less optimistic about employment conditions six months ahead. The proportion expecting more jobs to become available fell to 14.6% from 16.4%, while the share anticipating fewer jobs increased to 26.1% from 25.3%.

The contrast between current labor-market perceptions and future expectations suggests that consumers remain relatively comfortable with present conditions but are becoming more cautious about the months ahead.

Outlook for the U.S. Economy Weakens

The Expectations Index dropped below 70 to 68.2, reflecting a deterioration in consumers’ outlook for business conditions, employment and household income.

Only 16.8% of consumers expected business conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 17.8% in July. At the same time, 23.1% expected business conditions to worsen, up from 21.6%. (The Conference Board)

Income expectations also weakened. The share of consumers expecting their income to increase declined to 17.6% from 19.5%, while those expecting their income to decline increased to 13.8% from 12.6%.

The Conference Board also reported that references to prices in general, as well as oil and gasoline, remained elevated in consumers’ comments. Mentions of war and conflict, food and groceries, trade and jobs also increased during August. (The Conference Board)

What the Data Could Mean for the U.S. Dollar

For forex traders, the main takeaway is the downside surprise in the headline confidence figure.

The August Consumer Confidence Index came in at 89.4, below the 90.3 market forecast. A weaker-than-expected reading may signal a more cautious consumer outlook and could influence expectations for household spending and economic momentum.

However, the improvement in the Present Situation Index and stronger perceptions of the current labor market provide a counterpoint. The sharp decline in the Expectations Index may therefore receive particular attention as traders assess the broader economic outlook.

The reaction in the U.S. dollar is also likely to depend on how the confidence data are interpreted alongside other major U.S. economic indicators and expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Forex Market Focus

The August U.S. Consumer Confidence report delivered a downside surprise, with the headline index falling to 89.4, below the 90.3 market forecast.

For currency markets, the report offers a mixed signal. Current economic and labor-market perceptions improved, while expectations for business conditions, employment and household income weakened.

Forex traders may now turn their attention to upcoming U.S. growth and inflation data for additional clues about the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Key Figures

• Actual: 89.4
• Forecast: 90.3
• Previous: 90.2 revised
• Surprise: -0.9 points versus forecast
• Present Situation Index: 121.2
• Expectations Index: 68.2

U.S. Consumer Confidence: August vs. July

Release date: August 25, 2026
Release time: 10:00 a.m. ET / 14:00 GMT
Currency: USD
Source: The Conference Board

This article is provided for informational and market-analysis purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.